Mobile Advertising: The $20B Opportunity Mirage - or is it?

Good insight from Jean-Louis Gassée:

As consumers shift their use of Facebook from PCs to smartphones, investors worry about lower mobile advertising revenues. Is this a temporary situation that will be remedied when usage patterns settle, or do investors have a right to be concerned? Must the advertising industry learn to adapt to a permanently leaner income stream from smartphones?

From http://www.mondaynote.com/2012/06/10/mobile-advertising-the-20b-opportunity-mirage/

I do not completely share his pessimism about location-based advertising though. Looking at how I use my smartphone, I can attest that there are plenty of consumption intents waiting to be seized:
  • Looking at a product review while on location in a shop
  • Checking out a product or service after talking about it with a friend
  • Finding a cool bar or restaurant nearby on a Friday night
The key is to achieve this in an unobtrusive way. I don't mind ads on Google when they match my intent and help me accomplish what I had in mind. This opportunity still exist when using a mobile device.

JLG asks "Do we want barkers on our devices?", but this is not a fully valid metaphor. Barkers have no access to information from our network of friends or personal preferences. Services such as Foursquare or Facebook do. I'm convinced we'll see innovation in this area that makes better use of the capabilities offered by smartphones, potentially reinventing advertising in the process.